With confirmed Democratic candidates in (351) house districts, it’s again time to see how we are going state by state.
Below the fold to see the good news as well as some potential concerns.
And go take a look at the fantastic 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
Alabama – 5/7 filled
The 2nd and 6th both need candidates. The 6th is one of ten districts we did not contest in 2006 and it wasn’t contested in 2004 either. There are rumoured candidates in the 2nd but ominous silence from the 6th.
AL-02 – R+13,
AL-06 – R+25,
Alaska – FULL SLATE
Arizona – FULL SLATE
Arkansas – FULL SLATE
California – 47/53 filled
Well 6 races is a few to find candidates for but this is California and all of the currently uncontested districts had candidates in 2006.
The districts are all over the state and I guess at this stage we should watch this space.
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
Colorado – 5/7 filled
The 5th and 6th both need candidates with both 2006 candidates unlikely to run again. Despite the focus on the open senate race I expect the Colorado Dems to find candidates for both these districts so as to boost turnout for the senate race.
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
Connecticut – FULL SLATE
Delaware – FULL SLATE
Florida – 19/25 filled
6 Races to fill. It is a little early to be too concerned, particularly given the attention being paid to the 13th. None the less it would be good to see a few of these fill soon.
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
Georgia – 9/13 filled
Travelling OK in Georgia vis a vis house candidates. 4 more to fill, all with rumoured candidates.
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
Hawaii – FULL SLATE
Idaho – 1/2 filled
Well Idaho 2 is unlikely to be even remotely competitive unless it becomes an open race, which is unlikely also.
Sure we will find a candidate here in the time remaining.
68% Bush district in 2004.
ID-02 – R+19,
Illinois – 18/19 filled
Only one race to fill well done Illinois Dems
IL-15 – R+6,
Indiana – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and certainly a candidate will step up.
IN-05 – R+20,
Iowa – FULL SLATE
Kansas – 3/4 filled
Early days yet and we only need to fill one race. Wait and see.
KS-01 – R+20,
Kentucky – 2/6 filled
With a competitive gubernatorial race coming in November it is no great surprise that 3/4 of the GOP incumbents do not have declared opponents. Wait until after November.
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
KY-05 – R+8,
Louisiana – 3/7 filled
See Kentucky – however the precarious state of the Louisiana Democrats does not bode well. Also the 6th is one of the uncontested 10 districts from 2006.
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
Maine – FULL SLATE
Maryland – FULL SLATE
Massachusetts – FULL SLATE
Michigan – 10/15 filled
A couple of recent candidate declarations make Michigan less of a concern but it would be nice to see some more candidates in this state.
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
Minnesota – FULL SLATE
Mississippi – 2/4 filled
Only 2 districts to fill which I assume democrats will turn their minds to filling after this years elections. Note that the Open 3rd was not contested by us in 2006 or 2004.
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
Missouri – 6/9 filled
2 GOP districts filled and 3 to go. With the focus on the gubernatorial contest in 08 expect the Missouri Dems to find candidates for all 3 districts.
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
Montana – FULL SLATE
Nebraska – 0/3 filled
all 3 districts to fill with Kleeb likely to run again in the 3rd and Esch likely to run again in the 2nd. No problems here at this stage.
NE-01 – R+11,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
Nevada – 2/3 filled
Only 1 district to fill should happen soon hopefully.
NV-02 – R+8.2,
New Hampshire – FULL SLATE
New Jersey – 12/13
We are doing surprisingly well in New Jersey this cycle. Months to go and state legislative elections in november and we still have filled 5/6 of the GOP districts with challengers. The other will no doubt fill after November (Van Drew is my bet).
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
New Mexico – FULL SLATE
New York – 28/29 filled
Only 1 more to fill here. Expect an announcement soon.
NY-03 – D+2.1,
North Carolina – FULL SLATE
North Dakota – FULL SLATE
Ohio – 14/18 filled
4 Races to fill, not bad considering, be nice to fill these quickly.
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
Oklahoma – 2/5 filled
Only one of the GOP incumbents opposed at this stage not a good sign at all. Oklahoma being as red as it is this is one to be concerned about IMHO.
OK-01 – R+13,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
Oregon – 4/5 filled
The only question is who will step up in the 2nd a 61% bush 2004 district, particularly if the rumours about Waldens retirement are true.
OR-02 – R+11,
Pennsylvania – 16/19 filled
3 races to fill here; 1 with rumoured candidates. The PA Dems will fill these 3 races easily.
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
PA-19 – R+12,
Rhode Island – FULL SLATE
South Carolina – 2/6 filled
None of the GOP incumbents have declared opponents – this is a worry. The state of the SC Dems is probably worse than everywhere else bar Georgia and Louisiana. Hopefully candidates will step up.
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
SC-04 – R+15,
South Dakota – FULL SLATE
Tennessee – 5/9 filled
Another southern state with all GOP incumbents currently unopposed. *sigh* This one too could be a problem. Watch this space.
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TN-07 – R+12,
Texas – 20/32 filled
Well 12 unfilled races says it all. Texas is a perennial concern for house wonks such as myself, largely because it sends more house repubs to congress than any other state (19). Texas also has a very early filing deadline so this is one to be watched. TX-11 was uncontested in 2006. Expect to hear more about this state later in the year.
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-24 – R+15,
Utah – 1/3 filled
Well it comes as no shock that we have unfilled races in Utah however there are only two GOP incumbents without declared opponenets so we will wait and see.
UT-01 – R+26,
UT-03 – R+22,
Vermont – FULL SLATE
Virginia – 6/11 filled
Virginia is a little slow out of the blocks. Of concern is the 4th which we did not contest in 2006 or 2004. To be fair however there is both state house and senate elections this november as well as the potential open senate race. Wait and see at this point. On the upside the 6th will be contested for the first time since 2002.
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
Washington – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and that should happen.
57% Bush 2004 district.
WA-05 – R+7.1,
West Virginia – FULL SLATE
Wisconsin – FULL SLATE
Wyoming – FULL SLATE
So in the main things are looking great on the house candidate front. However a number of states are of concern; Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas in particular. On the upside however 22 states have a full slate and 9 with only 1 race to fill.
Onwards to 435!
Your thoughts?
Thanks for the thorough round-up
Just FYI, my understanding is that Jim Esch has announced he isn’t going to run in Nebraska 2. It seems increasingly likely that Scott Kleeb may become a Senate candidate rather than running in Nebraska-3 — he’s waiting for Omaha mayor Mike Fahey to decide, but most folks seem to think that he will pass and that Kleeb will end up as the Senate nominee… Kleeb is definitely a promising new face, and he probably has a better chance statewide than in the overwhelmingly Republican 3rd… but anyone running against Johanns will face a tough race…
Texas is on January 8th.
It would be great if filing deadlines (where available) could be added to your information.